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Saturday 9 November 2013

Ser pobre e empreender

Estudos recentes provaram que ser pobre ou nascer numa família humilde pode ser um grande motivador para empreender e ser bem sucedido no mundo dos negócios. Mas atenção, não mui pobre. O estudo defende que se o individuo for muito pobre, dificilmente se mantȇm conectado, dificultando os niveis de investimento, acesso as grandes lides, capitais e por aí em diante.
A questão de fazer parte da classe média esta também ligada ao acesso à educação, condição necessária para empreender em negócios internacionais. Exemplos são alguns negócios nascidos no Silicon Valley, que foram de estudantes cujos parentes tinham o suficiente para investir na educação dos filhos em grandes universidades, mas não tão abastados financeiramente (Ex. Steve Jobs da Apple, Zuckerberg do facebook).
Se o individuo for muito rico, ele perde a fome para o sucesso. Manter-se esfomeado (Stay hungry) como disse o Steve Jobs numa aula magna de termino do ano lectivo universitário, é importante, mas o mais importante ainda é estar esfomeado em primeiro lugar. A questão da motivação joga um papel ainda mais importante se o empreendedor passar do primeiro para o segundo investimento. Se no primeiro for bem sucedido, a probabilidade de ser menos bem sucedido no segundo empreendimento aumenta, dependendo da “fome”.
A recompensa com o sucesso é mais reconhecida quando o indivíduo provȇm de classe humilde. A história por contar transporta maior legado e inspiração, assim como o respeito pelos pares. Cantores como Jay Z, que viveu em projectos de habitação pública e que actualmente gere um património de meio biliao de dólares, é um exemplo de como a perseverança e o empreendedorismo podem catapultar o homem do anonimato para as grandes esferas de negócios.
Assim, seja esfomeado como um leão, interaja com os mercados, faça o seu e deixe legado. Ademais, é necessário criar uma classe média abrangente para aumentar os níveis de investimento por nacionais no País.
 

Friday 14 October 2011

Sistema de transporte público em Maputo: Soluções mistas e longa visão

Maputo é a capital económica e política de Moçambique, e isso não a iliba da pressão cosmopolitana que todas as grandes cidades sofrem. Maputo cidade e Maputo Provincia são habitada por mais de 2 milhoes de pessoas, este número é considerado acima do planificado e as infraestruturas estão sob pressão. Cerca de 80% dos habitantes reside em subúrbios ao redor de Maputo, e a economia informal é o motor da sua sobrevivência. Uma grande porção se desloca dos aredores para o centro da cidade e mercados para realizar suas tarefas laborais.

A Politica de Transportes Urbanos para o Grande Maputo[1] previa que em 2005, apenas dentro da Cidade de Maputo, existiam 2.500 autocarros, na sua maioria mini-buses a efectuaram cerca de 350.000 viagens de transporte de passageiros por dia e que a industria de transportes urbanos de passaeiros possui cerca de 3.500 viaturas, na sua maioria mini-buses recondicionados de 15 lugares e mini-buses recondicionados de 25 lugares pertencentes e operados por privados. Existiam cerca de 1.000 empresas privadas de transporte em Maputo e mais 600 na Matola.

A Associação dos Transportadores de Maputo (ATROMAP) opera na Cidade de Maputo e possui uma frota de 2.001 mini-buses; e a União dos Transportadores de Maputo (UTRAMAP) opera na Matola e entre Maputo e a Matola com 1.466 mini-buses. Os Transportes Publicos de Maputo (TPM), compahia gerida pelo Estado, em 2005 dos 80 carros, apenas 25 encontravam-se operacionais. Actualmente a sua frota é de 196 autocarros, de 90 lugares, 35 sentados e o remanescente de pé), em que 8 são autocarros executivos de luxo de marcas Man–Diesel, Mercedes, Yutong, Iveco, Yaxing e Zonda Bus e Marcopolo, em que 3 da marca Yutong são movidos à gás. Os TPM transportam diariamente 74.000 passageiros.

Feitas as contas, operando em plena capacidade, os transportadores de Maputo podem evacuar  em simultaneo aproximadamente 70.000 passageiros numa so viagem, o que seria suficiente para aliviar o problema da falta de transporte. Mas onde reside o problema e quais as soluções?


Photo: TPM em Maputo, by Jay Cee.

A capacidade operacional dos transportes no dia-a-dia é diferente das estatisticas. Muitos destes carros encontram-se obsoletos, com constantes visitas mecánicas e fraca manutenção, hipotéticamente diria que quase metade da frota nao funciona em simultaneo. Os carros de 15 lugares não oferecem uma capacidade de evacuação eficaz nas horas de ponta, onde a demanda aumenta e os engarrafamentos dificultam o fluxo de viaturas do centro a periferia e vice-versa. Uma cidade sem meios eficazes de conecção entre as várias redes de transporte não consegue resolver seus problemas com base em viaturas apenas. Em Economia dos Transportes (temos alguns Moçambicanos com essa especialidade), a problemática dos transportes é muitas vezes solucionada através da criação de redes mais eficazes de comunicação e maiores alternativas e diversidades de acesso ao transporte. É neste ultimo aspecto que irei me concentrar nos próximos parágrafos.

O problema dos transportes tem sido analizado numa prespectiva pouco ousada e a curto prazo, o que não coaduna com a dinámica dos custos crescentes dos transporte e crescimento demográfico. Com a constante subida dos preços de combustíveis, os Países não produtores (e mesmo os produtores) tem estado a implementar políticas a médio e curto prazo de substituição de hábitos de consumo. O encorajamento na compra de viaturas com reduzida cilindragem e com efeitos menos nocivos ao meio-ambiente (carros modernos) é acompanhada pela penalização na aquisição de viaturas com características contrárias.

Contudo, qualquer política na cobrança de impostos que pode ser impopular, deve ser compensada por outras que revelem melhorias no corrolário do sacrifício público. Nenhum País resolveu seus problemas de transporte sem uma forte intervenção do Estado. Há que investir no Desenvolvimeto da Capacidade dos TPM, em termos materiais e humanos. Uma quota dessa gestão deve ser transferida ao privado de modo a conceder competitividade e maior abertura na prestação de contas, sem nunca esfaziá-la do seu objectivo social primordial.

Desenvolvimento passa incontornavelmente pela mudança de mentalidade. A primeira é o respeito pelo tráfego e a vida na via pública. A segunda é o incentivo ao uso de bicicletas em distâncias moderadas. Estes dois aspectos podem melhorar a qualidade de vida dos munícipes. Países desenvolvidos e fabricantes de automóveis de primeira linha, para além de buscarem soluções híbridas nao abdicaram do uso da bicicleta e até criaram modelos em que o aparelho é movido a mini-motor carregado por uma bacteria (vide imagem abaixo).


Photo: Jay Cee (Electric Bicycle, or E-Bike, movido a motor eléctrico, muito comuns na China, Japão, Australia, Nova Zelândia, Alemanha, Holanda e outros).

Estas medidas exigem uma forte Eduação Cívica, e a re-introdução desta disciplina no ensino primário é um imperativo de desenvolvimento. De pequeno se torce o pepino e é nesta idade que se cultivam padrões de socialização. Educação Cívica deve ser extensiva aos mais velhos, e é por isso que temos os canais de comunicação pública, para educar e não para replicar modelos de socialização da sétima arte. A estes canais se exige muita criatividade para competir com os tradicionais sensacionalistas e entertainers, nada que uma equipa bem fromada e motivada não possa executar.

O descongestionamento da via pública, aumento da frota pública gerida em parceria com o privado, reduçao da dependência dos preços dos combustiveis e Éducação Cívica é um imperativo para criação de alternativas de transporte mais sólidas e definitivas, como os Commuter Trains. Maputo tem potencial para albergar este tipo de tecnologias, bastando apenas que se focalize nesse sentido, busque parcerias, e faça os seus deveres de casa com um espírito de coesão. O maior problema de África continua a ser liderança e como em tudo, liderança fará diferença neste processo. Pessoas comprometidas a executar planos a longo prazo e mesmo apôs sucessão de lideranças. Uma coisa é o objectivo individual ou de grupos, outra é o objectivo comum, de cidadania e este deve estar acima, bem desenhado e compreendido por todos para que não haja descontinuidade do positivo. Vide o link em anexo:




[1] Política dos transportes urbanos para o Grande Maputo; Dezembro 2006; USAID.

Sunday 29 May 2011

What lessons do we have from Japan’s Constitution making experience?

Porque em Mozambique se discute a revisao constitucional, lembrei me de um seminario em 2010 em que apresentei reflexoes sobre a Constituicao Japonesa e abaixo se encontram as principais conclusoes por mim reportadas. Alguns aspectos deste texto podem servir de reflexao para Mocambique embora eu nao tenha feito esse estudo comparativo. Voila:


" Japan’s experience in Constitution making is unique, not only due to the environment where it was created and all the lobbies and backstage scenarios, but mainly for its articles, specially the Article 9. Due to his peculiarity, the following lessons can be taken:

1-      A constitution needs to reflect the willing of the people, which kind of system, government and main rules the people want to follow. A State is an autonomous territory with sovereignty, population and national symbols. The population needs to decide which kind of government they want and the Institutions that will exercise the monopoly of use of force. Fortunately Japan people were in line with the new precepts aligned in their new constitution.

2-      Transference or transplant of laws that was the case of the new Japanese Peace Constitution after war, government’s position in the negotiations is very important. Even though the war was lost, Japanese officers didn’t face any retaliation and the Emperor kept his position as symbol of State although he lost powers as an omnipotent god. The book Written by Bernie Weisz entitled “Unit 731, the testimony” explains how Japanese officers used data from biological experiments to negotiate with USA the freedom of officers involved in what he called “crime wars”. One lesson, even when a war is lost you have to have secret weapons to negotiate better terms of surrender, and in that issue Japan did a good job thanks to Genenal Shiro Ishii and the good timing use of opportunities that the country had after the atomic bombs. Note that Japanese officer failed to address the terms of surrender just after the Potsdam Declaration that leaded to Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombing.        

3-      Change the principles of one Constitution using the same people who drew the previous might not be a good transparency option. Matsumoto’s draft did not change the basic principles of Meiji Constitution such as military issues and they had no intention or they were not capable of including issues related with human rights, liberalism and democracy. To overcome this problem, an outside advice might increase to reflect the division of power and decentralization needed in any good democracy.

4-      Any amendment on the constitution needs to follow the same national willing to do so. The Japanese Constitution is completing 64 years this year, and no revisions so far, despite a lot of debates and discussions about the way forward for the constitution, there is no consensus about which kind of Constitution to draw (kaikenron vs. kakenron shukenron vs. gokenron). More than 50% of Japanese people agree with the revision and more than 50% because of the Article 9. The USA constitution has about 224 years and 21 amendments, so maybe due to this all uncertain position of Japan’s future, the legislatures should think about which directions to take. But as Japan is not unanimous on which kind of changes to do, I would suggest a partial amendment, at least to accommodate new contemporary issues such as the use of self-defense forces in overseas operations."

Note: Chapter II: Renunciation of War; Article 9: Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes. 2) In order to accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained. The right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized.

Wednesday 27 April 2011

What is Development?

l  My definition of Development?
l  My definition of Poverty?
l  What Development Economists should do to promote these definitions?

There is no single definition for development and neither a common sense in any definition that we can give. For instance, Todaro (2009:14-27) doesn’t dare to bring his own definition, he makes a comprehensive historic overview of trends for defining development and finishes with Sen’s approach, development of capabilities, freedom, happiness, among others.

But my aim here is not to express previous definitions. As experts in Development we have our own targets regarding how we perceive development inserted in our own biases and visions of the world. A lot of critic has been done by scholars regarding traditional definitions of development and poverty. The main problem with the traditional point of view is that many scholars, even today, look at Development through the scope of those who reached certain patterns of social, economical, structural and institutional changes first and target the same patterns for late comers. This is what is called Euro centrism or westernization and for many it’s influenced by Globalization.

We may see a similar problem when we define poverty. In order to minimize the uniformity of patterns for poverty, the World Bank introduced different levels of poverty. It’s called absolute poverty if someone lives below $1.25 at 2005 purchasing-power parity (PPP). While it is not an easy issue to define the poverty lines (poverty gap at 1.25 US$ day; poverty gap 2 US$ day), there is Relative Poverty (Poverty gap at national poverty line; Poverty gap at rural poverty line; Poverty gap at urban poverty line) which is almost the same as measuring income inequality as if a society gets a more equal income distribution, relative poverty generally fall. These are useful instruments, but do they represent the real concept of how different societies perceive poverty?

As Jonathan Hobbs stated, poverty is also a complex and multidimensional concept that has economic, social, political, environmental, and other facets. Poverty is not only a matter of low or no incomes, although it is often expressed in these absolute terms. Poverty can also be relative whereby it could be a lack of access to education, health, and other essential services, or what we call the basic needs dimension. It could be a lack of self-respect and dignity that poor people experience, or what we call the social exclusion dimension. Or it could be a risk or likelihood of falling into poverty and insecurity and a relative exposure to sudden shocks, such as droughts or floods, or what we call the vulnerability dimension. There's also a transient dimension to poverty which describes when people move in and out of it. Therefore, there are very multifaceted ways of perceiving and interpreting poverty as well as development.

In my own definition, Poverty is lack of hope. Hope here must be perceived in all senses of self-deprivation. So, it’s a more emotional and spiritual feeling than material. Absolute poor are not those who live below $1 day. Who needs $1.25 a day when you have food from the ground, meat of the corral, water from the spring, eats firewood bread, and extracts honey from the bees and milk from the sheep? And if you don’t have all these resources available, (those who live in the desert, nomads, and other environmental restricted areas) but you still have means and tools to overcome your daily deprivations, you may still be satisfied (happy) therefore not feeling poor. Being unsure of what your tomorrow will be is worse than not having markets.

What about Development? In my definition Development is self emancipation represented in a societal progress to reach its targets. In this definition there are two dimensions. An individual (self achievements) who overlaps to the group where this person is inserted (society). Therefore, a person is a key for development. A serious investment in education will come out with new ideas and solutions to overcome common problems. In a more globalized world, where development is also perceived as reaching international patterns, the solution for development is still education.

What should development economists do in order to promote these definitions? It’s not a single action that will change the status quo. As development and poverty affects primarily the poor countries, scholars from these countries who perceive advanced studies have the role to write and talk about the best policies for their countries. Unfortunately, in the case of Africa, most of the brains end up serving different interests because the absorption levels of their contributions are weak in their home countries. But that’s not the only problem. I do believe that these brains could contribute more even without returning to their home countries. The Information Technologies are very important. There are plenty of things that can be communicated by word, but actions can also be efficient. For those who belong to developed countries, development studies was always associated with westernization. This view needs to change. A better approach should be to listen more to what these countries have to say. More fieldworks and case studies are needed.

Bibliography:

l  Todaro, Michael P.; Stephen C. Smith; Economic Development; Tenth Edition, Addison-Wesley and Pearson Education; England – USA; 2009.
l  Sen, Amartya; Development as Freedom; Anchor Books; New York; 1999
l  Hobbs, Jonathan; Making SEA More Relevant to Poverty Reduction Policies, Plans, and Programs; World Bank  

Thursday 13 January 2011

Doing Business in Africa - Mozambique

Saturday 6 November 2010

African Leafy Vegetables (ALV): Experience in promoting research and improving marketing channels in Kenya. Lessons to Mozambique  

By Maloa, Jeremias Clemente
2010-10-19

During the seminar presented by Morimoto Y. and Patrick Maundu[1], at the Graduate School of International Development, very interesting issues regarding promotion of ALV to become valued crops found in groceries and supermarkets were raised. One of the most important issues in this work was the identification of diversity of wild plants as food. It was estimated that there are 850 species of indigenous food plants in Kenya, and vegetables constitute the second largest group in diversity. There are 400 species of fruits (about 50%) and 210 leafy vegetables species.

This identification itself is a rich source of research, as it gives an overview of the ability of the country to supply a diversified diet. I tried to look for the same source of data for Mozambique, unfortunately I couldn’t identify any (I hope that Mozambique has a similar study somewhere, otherwise this is an important benchmarking opportunity).

For those who know about Sub-Saharan Africa, it is no doubt that vegetables are an important source of relish or side dish for starchy foods, like Ugali or sima or xima or uphwa (according to the region). However, due to the colonial pre-concepts, and traditional vegetables having been often associated with poverty and backwardness, studies and promotion has been neglected. Until recently, in many African countries, eating meat is a symbol of wealth or well-being and gaining weight is a symbol of prominence, despite all the health risks associated with the population’s unbalanced diet habits.


It’s important to notice that promotion of traditional vegetables in Africa is a means of improving the nutritional level; a use of minimal (inexpensive) inputs (especially pesticides); a use of available local knowledge and local conditions; and also a means of income. Japan offers a good example on the importance of promotion of local foods (especially vegetables). In primary schools students have lunch provided by the local government and produced by local farmers. They can see the local farmers’ pictures on the daily menu and have lessons about the nutritious value of the products as well as doing field work. As a result, the cuisine in Japan is very healthy, people are aware about the importance of vegetables, and the food industry gains from this diversified knowledge. In Africa, Mozambique in particular, it is still difficult to find restaurants and hotels that specialize in local foods. In order to enjoy a delicious traditional vegetable meal, a person needs to travel to rural areas or search for someone with skills to do it, often a grandmother or an “old school” mother as this knowledge is not being properly transferred to the new generations.

Kenya is experiencing a project called ALV to revert this status quo. Fifteen institutions led by Bioversity International (http://www.bioversityinternational.org/) had to identify key constrains in production, marketing and consumption, and priority species for development, commercialization and use. The phase 2 of the project (2001-2006) made a joint plant exploration to collect germplasm[2], developed high quality lines through selection (using farmers’ fields and stations), seeds distributions, training farmers (agronomy, farming as a business, seed production), market linkages, recipe documentation and dissemination, promotion and awareness campaigns through food fairs, and educational material and lectures.

In this paper, I am concerned, not on the strategies used by ALV Project and the results (which are not yet concluded), but on how a similar vision could increase the value and productivity of traditional vegetables in Mozambique, where there is lack of knowledge about their potentiality. According to the link below, the Mozambican Government, through the Ministry of the Agriculture, reached an agreement with the Commercial Bank of Investments (BCI) to assure a line of credit of seven billions of Meticais (about US$280,000) to support the re-launch of the production of vegetables, particularly the tomato, in the districts of Chókwè, and other adjacent ones (http://www.portaldogoverno.gov.mz/noticias/news_folder_politica/junho2006/news_018_p_06_06/). Note that this action comes in the sequence of a viral disease that affected the tomato production in the districts of Chókwè, in the province of Gaza, and others, in the province of Maputo, where the farmers lost between 70 to 100 percent of their produce.

Of course we shouldn’t expect the government to interfere on the entire sectors of production in Mozambique (a liberalized country), but agriculture requires a special attention not only during crises, but most importantly as a sustainable development strategy of all nations. There is no developed country in the world that left agriculture as a sector to be ruled by market forces[3]. Why do African Governments should abandon this sector?

From the Kenyan initiative, I found out that it is about time Africa regained bonds with their diet roots and promoted their traditional crops. It’s important to have an inward strategy before thinking on further markets. A country like Mozambique with more than 800,000 square kilometers of land and an immense water source shouldn’t rely on neighbor countries to provide agricultural goods. It is not an easy task due to international food prices, free competition and level of production. In an open economy, an increase in the national food prices due to high cost of production or inefficient technology makes national food less competitive and relatively more expensive to foreign produced food. Therefore, and because of the exchange rate, national food become more expensive for foreigners to buy and international food become relatively cheaper for nationals to buy. According to Dornbusch et al. (2008:509), an increase in national price level thus shifts demand away from national goods toward imports and also reduces exports.

Despite those and other challenges, a special aggressiveness and publicly known strategies should be initiated, from the base line of identifications through researches on potentialities, linkages, marketing, tourism, sales and the view of agriculture as a 6th industry. A clear view of agriculture, from micro perspective to macro, from traditional crops to the known cash crops, might help to tackle food security issues and bring about sustainable development.

References:
-       Dornbusch, Rudi; Stanley Fischer and Richard Startz (2008); Macroeconomics; Tenth Edition; McGraw-Hill/Irwin; New York.



[1] Patrick Maundu helped on the contents but was physically absent.
[2] A germplasm is a collection of genetic resources for an organism. For plants, the germplasm may be stored as a seed collection or, for trees, in a nursery.
[3] USA, UK and Japan offer good case studies on this matter, where the sector was heftily subsidized. France, the European Union (EU) leading agricultural producer is also the main country in the EU that is against the reduction of subsidies – for details about EU Agriculture Policy see http://europa.eu/pol/agr/index_en.htm.  And most importantly, see the Common Agricultural Policy – CAP, a system of European Union agricultural subsidies and programs http://www.ena.lu/.

Sunday 24 October 2010

Mozambique - Magic Land